Gubernatorial candidate Chris Dudley has emerged as the leading Republican contender in a new hypothetical general-election poll against incumbent Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek. Dudley, who has never previously held elected office, is entering the race with a strong background in professional sports, business leadership, and nonprofit work, according to recent reports.
Before entering politics, Dudley spent 16 seasons playing in the National Basketball Association, including six seasons with the Portland Trail Blazers. During his basketball career, he became widely recognized not only for his defensive skills and leadership on the court but also for his involvement in community and charitable activities.
After retiring from professional basketball in 2003, Dudley transitioned into the private business sector. He co-founded Filigree Wealth Advisors and later served as chairman and chief executive officer of Diabetomics, a healthcare company focused on diabetes testing and prevention. In addition to his business accomplishments, Dudley founded the Chris Dudley Foundation, an organization dedicated to helping children living with diabetes. He also previously served as treasurer for the National Basketball Players Association, adding to his leadership credentials outside of sports.
A newly released poll commissioned by Dudley’s campaign and conducted by the Hoffman Research Group surveyed 603 likely general-election voters between May 11 and May 12. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
According to the survey results, Dudley currently leads Kotek in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, receiving 48% support compared to Kotek’s 44%. Another potential Republican candidate, state Sen. Christine Drazan, was shown tied with Kotek at 45% each in a separate matchup.
The poll also highlighted growing voter dissatisfaction across the state. Roughly 53% of respondents said they viewed Kotek unfavorably, while only 33% reported a favorable opinion of the governor. In addition, 58% of voters surveyed said they believe Oregon is currently headed in the wrong direction, reflecting broader concerns about the state’s future and political leadership.
Pollsters did not test a potential race involving Republican state Rep. Ed Diehl.
The timing of the poll is especially significant because it comes less than a week before the May 19 Republican primary election, which will narrow the GOP field ahead of the general election. Oregon’s elections are conducted under the state’s vote-by-mail system, meaning voter turnout and ballot returns are closely watched by both political parties.
According to the survey summary, both Dudley and Drazan appear competitive against Kotek, but Dudley was the only Republican candidate tested who actually held a lead over the incumbent governor. Even so, political analysts continue to caution that any Republican nominee would still face a difficult statewide race in Oregon, which has trended strongly Democratic for decades.
In fact, Oregon has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 1994, when Jack Roberts won election as labor commissioner. The last Republican governor elected in Oregon was Victor Atiyeh, who won reelection back in 1982.
Meanwhile, political developments in neighboring California are also drawing national attention less than one month before that state’s gubernatorial primary election. Newly released figures from the California Secretary of State show significant changes in early voting patterns that are causing concern among Democrats in the traditionally deep-blue state.
The official report revealed that Republican participation among early voters has increased sharply and is currently running more than 9% above Republican voter registration levels. At the same time, Democratic turnout appears to be lagging behind previous election cycles.
The data showed the following breakdown for early ballot returns:
– Democrat share of early ballot returns: 41%, down 7% compared to 2022.
– Republican share of early ballot returns: 34%, up 8% compared to 2022.
– Independent voter share of early ballot returns: 25%, up 2% from 2022.
Carl DeMaio, a Republican assemblymember from San Diego, warned against reading too much into the early numbers but acknowledged that the trend is encouraging for conservatives heading into the primary season.
“When you look at the numbers compared to both four years ago and overall voter registration, Democrats are significantly down while Republicans are clearly up in early voting,” DeMaio told reporters.
He added that the numbers could suggest many Democratic voters are still undecided about the governor’s race and may simply be taking longer to cast their ballots.
Political analyst Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc. also emphasized that it remains very early in the election process and that some counties report ballot returns faster than others.
“The early-days aspect is important because some of what we’re seeing depends on which counties are quicker at processing and reporting their data,” Mitchell explained.
Still, voting patterns indicate that older conservative voters and Republican-leaning property owners are participating at noticeably higher rates than other demographic groups so far.
According to the report, approximately 4.3% of voters aged 65 and older had already cast ballots. Voters between ages 50 and 64 accounted for around 2%, while voters aged 35 to 49 represented 1.1%. Younger voters between 18 and 34 made up only 0.7% of ballots returned so far.
Mitchell noted that these trends are fairly common in low-turnout elections, where the most consistent voters — especially older voters — tend to participate first and return their ballots earlier than the general population.
“These are typically the people who vote in nearly every election,” Mitchell said. “They usually vote early, and they tend to send their ballots back immediately once they receive them.”
